In June, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) published the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the first quarter of 2021, which covers the months January to March, and provided information using the International Labour Organisation’s (ILO) definitions of employment, unemployment, and inactivity, and estimated figures taking into account the impact of COVID-19 on the labour market.
Employment
According to the ILO Labour Force Classification to be counted as ‘in employment’, people must have “worked in the week before the survey for one hour or more for payment or profit, including work on the family farm or business and all persons who had a job but were not at work because of illness, holidays etc. in the week.” (CSO Background Notes to LFS)
Using this classification, 2,230,600 people were employed in Quarter 1, 2021: 116,600 fewer people than in the first quarter of 2020. Full-time employment dropped by 71,200 over the year to 1,796,900 people. Part-time employment also fell by 45,300 to 433,700. The decline in women’s part-time work was greater at 46,300, bringing their percentage of part-time employment down from 71% in Q1 2020 to 67% in Q1 2021.
In this Labour Force Survey, the CSO also published a COVID-19 Adjusted Measure of Employment for the ends of March, April, and May 2021. Under this measurement, at the end of March the numbers of people employed drops to 1,785,923. As the figures for April and May capture the economy starting to re-open, they are higher than the March estimate, at 1,845,383 and 1,921,085 respectively.
Labour Force
The labour force comprises people in employment plus those who are unemployed, and over the year the labour force decreased by 60,700 to 2,401,100. Two factors influence changes in the Labour Force, the demographic effect, which was positive (+20,000); and the participatory effect, which was negative (-80,700). The participation rate in Q1 2021 was 60%, it was 62.2% in Q1 2020, the quarter in which COVID-19 pandemic arrived.
Unemployment
According to the ILO Labour Force Classification only the following people are counted as unemployed: “Persons who, in the week before the survey, were without work and available for work within the next two weeks, and had taken specific steps, in the preceding four weeks, to find work. It should be noted that as per Eurostat’s operational implementation, the upper age limit for classifying a person as unemployed is 74 years.” (CSO Background Notes to LFS)
In Q1 2021, 170,500 people were unemployed: 55,800 more people than in Q1 2020. The unemployment rate was 7.1%, an increase of 2.4 over the year. The number of people deemed long-term unemployed was 40,800 and the long-term unemployment rate was 1.7%. In Q1 2020 these figures were 31,900 and 1.3% respectively.
The Principal Economic Status (PES) captures data on how people described themselves, for example whether they are at work or unemployed or a student or on home duties. In Q1 2021, 293,500 people described themselves as unemployed: an increase of 127,800 on the same quarter last year.
Another helpful statistic is the Potential Additional Labour Force (PALF). In Q1 2021 PALF stood at 201,600: 92,600 more people than a year ago. This figure captures people who are deemed as ‘inactive’ but who may well view themselves as unemployed.
When the impact of COVID-19 is factored in and everyone who is on a Pandemic Unemployment Payment is assumed to meet the ILO definition of unemployment, the numbers of people unemployed increases at the end of March to 612,443, with an unemployment rate of 25.7%.
At the end of April 2021, the adjusted measure of unemployment was 564,059 and the unemployment rate was 24.8%. While in May the COVID-19 adjusted unemployment estimate was 487,122 and the unemployment rate was 21.9%. The improvement in these figures reflects the re-opening of the economy.
Pathways to Work
In the new Pathways to Work 2021-2025 strategy the Government says it will:
- Reduce long-term unemployment by getting 75,000 long-term unemployed people into employment by July 2023.
- Reduce the proportion of long-term unemployed jobseekers to 2.5% of the labour force in 2025.
In setting these targets the Government has moved away from the measures / methodologies used in the Labour Force Survey: as according to the Labour Force Survey in Q1, 2021 there were 40,800 people classified as long-term unemployed, and the long-term unemployment rate was 1.7%.
With regard to the first target, under the measure ‘Progression from Long-Term Unemployment’, they talk about moving “75,000 people long-term unemployed and in receipt of jobseeker supports as at 01/07/2021 into employment by 01/07/2023” (p27). According to the CSO in June 2021, there were 80,316 people on the Live Register for more than a year. The INOU understands from the Department of Social Protection that the number of people who have received a Pandemic Unemployment Payment for more than a year is greater.
With regard to the second target, they note in footnote 8 that “Jobseekers are PUP or JA/JB recipients on the Live Register, excluding casual claims. The annual percentages are averages taken over 4 quarters, where for each quarter, the end of quarter jobseeker total is calculated as a percentage of the size of the labour force (all persons aged 15 years and over) in that quarter.” (p27)
As this Strategy rolls out and progress reports are made, the INOU will keep readers informed on whether or not these targets have been met.